Scientists question NHS algorithm as young people called in for jab
Scientists are questioning the reliability of algorithms used to trawl through patients’ health records and flag those who should be asked to shield and prioritised for vaccination.
GPs have reported being contacted by young, healthy patients confused as to why they have been told they are at high risk, or have been invited for a COVID-19 jab.
The Joint Committee on Vaccination and Immunisation (JCVI) has defined nine priority groups for vaccination, including everyone aged over 50, plus frontline health and social care workers and people aged 16–64 with serious health conditions.
The QCovid risk prediction algorithm, introduced last month, combines various characteristics, including age, sex, ethnicity and body mass index (BMI), to estimate the risk of catching, being admitted to hospital, or dying from Covid-19.
However, the algorithm appears to throw up certain inconsistencies. For example, if a patient’s weight or ethnicity are not recorded on their health records, QCovid automatically ascribes them a BMI of 31 (obese) and the highest risk ethnicity (black African), meaning they are more likely to be invited for a vaccine. One York-based GP, Dr Abbie Brooks, has identified 110 seemingly healthy individuals who were added to the shielding list and invited to book a vaccine last month.
Although it will not harm younger, healthier individuals to receive a jab before their peers, it may mean more vulnerable people have to wait longer for their doses.
“I can see that they don’t want to miss out people, which may be why they’re taking this conservative approach, but the problem is that when you make that prioritisation, you are pushing others further down the line,” Irene Petersen, professor of epidemiology and health informatics at University College London, said.
Source: The Guardian, 9 March 2021