How many extra deaths have really occurred in the UK due to the COVID-19 outbreak? Dr Rodney P Jones (28 April 2020)

Summary

An analysis from Dr Rodney P. Jones, Lecturer in Healthcare Management.

Content

• An initial estimate (at end of March) is given for the worst affected local authorities in England, Wales and Scotland.
• COVID-19 hot spots are evident. A revised estimate is provided at the week ending 17th April at regional level, with London experiencing a 13.1% increase in annual deaths.
• Total ‘excess’ deaths is slightly higher at a level of 2.2-times the in-hospital deaths.
• It is suspected that asymptomatic infection with COVID-19 may be triggering seemingly unrelated deaths We need to ask the question if similar events occurred in China?
• Current methods for choosing the baseline against which to determine ‘excess’ deaths have limitations.