Estimating the number of infections and the impact of non-pharmaceutical interventions on COVID-19 in 11 European countries (30 March 2020)

Summary

Following the emergence of coronavirus and its spread outside of China, Europe is now experiencing large epidemics. In response, many European countries have implemented unprecedented non-pharmaceutical interventions including case isolation, the closure of schools and universities, banning of mass gatherings and/or public events and most recently, widescale social distancing including local and national lockdowns.

In this report, from Imperial College London, authors use a model (semi-mechanistic Bayesian hierarchical) to attempt to understand the impact of these interventions across 11 European countries.