The impact of COVID-19 on mortality can be broadly split into three categories: direct impacts; indirect impacts; and wider social and economic impacts.
Indirect impacts represent excess deaths due to stresses on the health system or changes in the health-seeking behaviour of individuals. These are the focus of this bulletin from the COVID-19 Actuaries Response Group.
At this stage of the pandemic, the mortality impacts are shifting from direct to indirect. Analysing emerging data can help to identify the magnitude of these impacts and the extent to which they are asymmetric across the population.
If care pathways do not rapidly return to pre-pandemic levels, then the COVID-19 pandemic will affect the standard of healthcare, morbidity and mortality across the UK for years to come.