Living risk prediction algorithm (QCOVID) for risk of hospital admission and mortality from coronavirus 19 in adults: national derivation and validation cohort study (20 October 2020)

Summary

Clift et al. have developed a new risk prediction tool that estimates a person’s chance of hospitalisation and death from COVID-19.

The algorithm, which was constructed using data from more than eight million people across England, uses key factors such as age, ethnicity and body mass index to help identify individuals in the UK at risk of developing severe illness.

Content

Key points

• Novel clinical risk prediction models (QCOVID) have been developed and evaluated to identify risks of short term severe outcomes due to COVID-19
• The risk models have excellent discrimination and are well calibrated; they will be regularly updated as the absolute risks change over time
• QCOVID has the potential to support public health policy by enabling shared decision making between clinicians and patients, targeted recruitment for clinical trials, and prioritisation for vaccination.