A University of Aberdeen study said the worst case estimate would apply if surgical rates did not increase for those listed in July this year.
Researchers also discovered the average wait across Scotland's 14 health boards could be as long as two years and three months.
The Scottish government said it was working to maximise NHS capacity.
Luke Farrow, clinical research fellow, warned that the significance of the delays could not be underestimated.
He said: "Prolonged waits for certain orthopaedic procedures can have a major negative impact on patient health.
"This occurs both in terms of deterioration in quality of life whilst awaiting surgery, as well as potential negative connotations for post-operative recovery and longer-term health in addition to reduced independence and increased social care needs."
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Source: BBC News, 14 December 2022
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