NHSE targeting 50% cut to waiting list

NHS England is floating proposals to cut the elective waiting list by nearly 50 per cent to under 4 million over the next five years.

HSJ understands this scenario is being discussed among system leaders as they brace themselves for the next government, whoever wins the general election, demanding a radical reduction in the waiting list. The list stood at 7.5 million as of the last official figures.

The figure of just under 4 million is in part being targeted because this is the level NHS bosses estimate the list would need to be reduced to if the service is to return to meeting the standard that 92 per cent of patients referred are treated within 18 weeks, which has not been met since February 2016.

Waiting list expert Rob Findlay estimated the required level would need to be closer to 3.5 million if the 92 per cent target is to be met. He told HSJ the list “would need to shrink to around 3.6 million before the statutory 18-week target became achievable again”.

HSJ understands NHSE’s leadership believes a target of under 4 million could be credible—albeit likely dependent on targeted extra capacity, technology, resolution of strikes and on which other targets are set, especially around emergency waiting times.

Progress could be accelerated by, for example, major outpatient reform to remove many appointments deemed unnecessary and use of technology to overhaul some pathways, officials believe. These could have a similar impact to the likes of faecal immunochemical testing, known as FIT, which is said to be playing a big role in reducing the cancer backlog.

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Source: HSJ, 26 April 2024