Population-health impact of new drugs recommended by the National Institute for Health and Care Excellence in England during 2000–20: a retrospective analysis (4 January 2025)

Summary

Health systems experience difficult trade-offs when paying for new drugs. In England, funding recommendations by the National Institute for Health and Care Excellence (NICE) for new drugs might generate health gains, but inevitably result in forgone health as the funds cannot be used for alternative treatments and services. This study evaluated the population-health impact of NICE recommendations for new drugs during 2000–20.

The study found that during 2000–20, NHS coverage of new drugs displaced more population health than it generated. The results highlight the inherent trade-offs between individuals who directly benefit from new drugs and those who forgo health due to the reallocation of resources towards new drugs.