School of Public Health: Tracking anticipated deaths from USAID funding cuts

Summary

Brooke Nichols has launched online tracking tools that capture estimated increases in mortality and disease spread for HIV/AIDS, tuberculosis, malaria, and other diseases as a result of the near-total freeze in US foreign aid funding and programming. 

Content

Over the last two months, the Trump administration’s slashing of US foreign aid and systematic dismantling of the US Agency for International Development (USAID) have severely disrupted the lives of populations abroad who rely on this funding for disease detection and treatment, nutrition assistance, and other vital public health services.

After pausing all foreign aid assistance by executive order on Inauguration Day, the administration permanently cancelled 83 percent of USAID’s global contracts just weeks later—a decision that public health experts warned would lead to preventable deaths and accelerate disease spread. 

If this foreign aid is not restored before the end of 2025, more than 176,000 additional adults and children around the world could die from HIV, according to excess death estimates from a new digital tracking initiative by Brooke Nichols, associate professor of global health. Her tracker also indicates that at least 62,000 additional people could die from tuberculosis (TB)—roughly one death every 7.7 minutes—if foreign aid does not resume by the end of the year, and these figures are steadily increasing.

These estimates are listed on Impact Counter, a real-time digital tracking website that Nichols utilises to quantify the real-world human impact of the recent US policy changes on humanitarian aid. On the site’s dashboard, Nichols provides up-to-date calculations of increases in mortality, disease spread, and healthcare costs for HIV/AIDS, TB, malaria, pneumonia, diarrhea, neglected tropical diseases, and malnutrition.