US State restrictions and excess Covid-19 pandemic deaths (26 July 2024)

Summary

This cross-sectional analysis aimed to find out how state restrictions affected the number of excess Covid-19 pandemic deaths across 50 US states plus the District of Columbia. It found that if all states had imposed Covid-19 restrictions similar to those used in the 10 most (least) restrictive states, excess deaths would have been an estimated 10% to 21% lower (13%-17% higher) than the 1.18 million that actually occurred during the two-year period analysed. Behaviour changes were associated with 49% to 79% of this overall difference.