Nearly 23 million extra deaths worldwide by 2030 as aid cuts bite, study says

Nearly 23 million additional deaths are expected by 2030 as a result of countries like the US and UK dramatically cutting their overseas aid, a new report estimates.

The peer-reviewed study, produced by the Barcelona Institute for Global Health (ISGlobal) and published in the influential health journal The Lancet, finds that cuts to aid programmes in 93 countries - including 38 in Sub-Saharan Africa - will result in 22.6m extra deaths by 2030.

With that total including some 5.4 million children under the age of five, the findings have been labelled a “humanitarian catastrophe”.

“These findings give a voice to millions of vulnerable people and show the profound moral cost of the zero-sum approach many political leaders are taking,” said Dr Rajiv J Shah, president of The Rockefeller Foundation, which helped to fund the report.

“Though it will take years to adequately assess the full toll of aid cuts, this early projection is an urgent call to action,” added Dr Shah, who is also a former administrator of the US Agency for International Development (USAID), which is the agency that managed most American aid programmes before it was closed by Donald Trump last year.

“This humanitarian catastrophe is not inevitable, but preventing it will require all of us to act with urgency,” Dr Shah added.

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Source: The Independent, 2 February 2026