NHS productivity slows despite ministers hailing ‘green shoots of recovery’

Hospital productivity growth has “slowed sharply” in recent months, new analysis has revealed, prompting experts to warn the NHS is set to miss a key government target.

It comes just weeks after ministers celebrated data showing the NHS had exceeded its target to become 2% more productive each year of this parliament.

NHS England data showed the acute sector had delivered 2.7% growth over the past financial year, 2024/25, as the amount of activity rose faster than staffing costs.

However, research carried out by the Health Foundation and the Strategy Unit, which compared staffing and activity growth month-by-month, found “progress has slowed sharply” in the final quarter of 2024/25, and in the first months of the current financial year.

The think tank said: “Further analysis reveals weakening growth across all components of care, with the fastest fall in emergency inpatient care. Staffing growth has slowed too, but not to the same degree. Taken together, this paints a picture of cooling acute productivity growth.”

Anita Charlesworth, who is co-leading the Health Foundation’s commission on NHS productivity, said the target would not be delivered by “short-term, one-off initiatives and getting people to try and have a big push on one aspect of care for a few months”.

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Source: HSJ, 22 October 2025