The Aids crisis was set to end by 2030 – now Trump’s cuts will mean 4 million more deaths

Donald Trump’s slashing of foreign aid has derailed the projected end of the Aids pandemic and could lead to four million extra deaths by 2030, The Independent can reveal.

New figures show the number of Aids-related deaths could jump from six million to 10 million in the next five years unless funding is reinstated, according to forecasts from the UN Aids agency (UNAIDS).

The unprecedented disruption to global HIV programmes by the US is also projected to lead to more than three million more Aids orphans than previously expected by the end of the decade.

Only last year, the UN said a goal to end the Aids pandemic by the end of the decade was in reach, equating to a 90% reduction in new infections and deaths.

According to the UN figures, there will be 3.4 million more orphans, defined as children who have lost at least one parent to Aids. In addition, 600,000 more newborns could be infected with HIV by 2030 – more than double the number originally feared. That will bring the total number of infant infections to a million by the end of the decade, analysis of the figures by The Independent shows.

Responding to the grim statistics, Professor Francois Venter, a leading HIV doctor at the University of Witwatersrand in Johannesburg, says: “All the gains that we’ve seen over the last 20 years will start being steadily reversed.

“Our hospitals when I was training 25 years ago were absolutely, absolutely overwhelmed. People were dying on the floor and at the moment hospitals are full, but they will be easily overwhelmed with what’s coming.”

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Source: The Guardian, 18 April 2025