‘Confidential’ document warns second covid peak could hit NHS five times harder

Modelling being used by NHS officials forecasts that hospital admissions could peak at five times the level seen in April without additional measures to control the virus, HSJ can reveal.

In all scenarios presented, covid hospital admissions would remain high for an extended period of many months, even if new lockdown actions were taken. However, putting multiple measures in place could contain them to a peak of less than that seen in the spring, according to the work.

They were included in a document marked “confidential” and included, apparently by accident, in public papers for Thursday’s meeting of Medway Foundation Trust board. Within hours of HSJ asking for more information, they were removed.

They were badged with Kent and Medway Clinical Commissioning Group, the NHS body which oversees services for that area. The forecasts were marked as being “Kent and Medway level”, but were referred to as “regional scenarios”, indicating they may have been produced by regional teams of NHS England and Improvement. The trust’s board papers said its own planning for the coming months would make use of the three scenarios presented in the document.

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Source: HSJ, 7 September 2020