The trusts set to have at least a third of beds filled by covid patients on 31 Dec

There are 14 hospital trusts on course to have at least a third of their beds filled by covid patients on New Year’s Eve.

HSJ analysed current occupancy and growth at each general acute trust in the seven days to 21 December. Projecting the same rate of growth forward, the number of trusts with at least a third of their bedbase likely to be taken by covid patients would increase from 5 at present to 14.

Three of the four acute trusts in Kent are projected to have covid bed occupancy of over 40%.

Another two trusts are in areas covered by tier two restrictions. They are Queen Elizabeth in Norfolk, and Countess of Chester. A third, East Sussex, has one of its two general hospitals in “tier four” (St Leonards), and the other in Eastbourne, which is outside the Sussex “tier four” zone.

There are also 27 trusts not in tier four areas which had more than 50 covid patients on 21 December, and where the number of covid patients grew by at least 20 per cent in that week. These include Liverpool University Hospitals and Sheffield Teaching Hospitals.

HSJ last week projected that, if trends continued, English hospitals would have just short of 19,000 covid patients on New Year’s Eve in total — almost exactly the same as the 12 April first wave peak. Current projections put that number at over 20,000.

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Source: HSJ, 23 December 2020