Superbugs could kill millions more and cost $2tn a year by 2050, models show

Superbugs could cause millions more people to die worldwide and cost the global economy just under $2tn a year by 2050, modelling shows.

A UK government-funded study shows that without concerted action, increased rates of antimicrobial resistance (AMR) could lead to global annual GDP losses of $1.7tn over the next quarter of a century.

The research, by the Center for Global Development thinktank, found the US, UK and EU economies would be among the hardest hit, prompting accusations that recent swingeing aid cuts are self-defeating.

On Thursday, the UK government announced it was axing funding for the Fleming fund, which combats AMR in low- and middle-income countries, as part of wider aid cuts. The Trump administration has confirmed $9bn in cuts to its foreign aid budget, while a number of European countries have also reduced spending on overseas aid.

Anthony McDonnell, the lead author of the research and a policy fellow at the Center for Global Development, said: “When we conducted our research on the economic impacts of antimicrobial resistance, it was anticipated that resistance rates would continue to follow historical trends.

“However, the sudden cuts to Official Development Assistance by the US, which has cut its aid spend by roughly 80%; the UK, which has announced aid cuts from 0.5% to 0.3% of gross national income; and substantial reductions by France, Germany, and others, could drive up resistance rates in line with the most pessimistic scenario in our research.

“Even countries that have been successful in keeping AMR rates under control cannot afford to be complacent. Unless AMR programmes are protected from aid cuts, resistance rates across the world will likely increase at a rate in line with the worst-affected countries.

“This would result in millions more people dying worldwide, including across G7 nations. Investing in treatment for bacterial infections now will save lives and deliver billions in long-term economic returns.”

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Source: The Guardian, 20 July 2025