Halving premature death and improving quality of life at all ages: cross-country analyses of past trends and future directions (14 December 2025)

Summary

Although death in old age is unavoidable, premature death—defined here as death before age 70 years—is not. To assess whether halving premature mortality by 2050 is feasible, this paper examined the large variation in premature death rates before age 70 years and trends over the past 50 years (1970–2019), covering ten world regions and the 30 most-populous nations.

Halving premature death by 2050 is feasible, although substantial investments in child and adult health are needed to sustain or accelerate the rate of improvement for high-performing and medium-performing countries. Particular attention must be paid to countries with very low or a worsening rate of improvement in probability of premature death. By reducing premature mortality, more people will live longer and more healthy lives. However, as people live longer, the absolute number of years lived with chronic disease will increase and investments in services reducing chronic disease morbidity are needed.