The Health Foundation: NHS waiting list to peak at more than 8 million by summer 2024 (27 October 2023)

Summary

New analysis by the Health Foundation shows that, if current trends continue, the waiting list for routine hospital treatment (‘elective care’) in England could rise to over 8 million by next summer, regardless of whether NHS industrial action continues.  

The analysis models four different future scenarios to look at the prospects for reducing the waiting list by the end of 2024. It shows that, on current trends, the waiting list could peak at 8 million by August 2024 if there is no further strike action, before starting to fall. If strike action were to continue the waiting list could be 180,000 higher.  

The analysis finds that industrial action by consultants and junior doctors has so far lengthened the waiting list by around 210,000, just 3% of the overall size of the list, which totalled 7.75 million at the end of August 2023. The analysis also points out that strikes are also likely to have indirect impacts, by squeezing NHS finances and diverting management attention away from productivity improvement.   

The analysis, which features an interactive ‘waiting list calculator’, also includes illustrative better and worse case scenarios.