The mythbuster: Long A&E waits kill 35 people daily; why isn’t NHSE more concerned? (HSJ, 8 April 2024)

Summary

NHS England’s response to claims of excess deaths due to long A&E waits leaves a lot to be desired, writes Steve Black for the HSJ.

The Royal College of Emergency Medicine (RCEM) claim that more than 250 A&E patients are dying each week because they waited more than 12 hours to be admitted. If long waits in A&E are killing an extra 250-400 people every week, it is the biggest performance problem in the NHS. NHSE should urgently ask their analysts to rework this analysis with current data to test (or refute) the validity of the claim. The first step to solving a huge problem is admitting the scale of the problem, not denying it exists. This analysis features a refinement of the RCEM estimate that includes estimated mortality from waits between four and 12 hours. This increases the estimate to 400 extra deaths per week compared to the RCEM number of 250.