Impact of interventions to reduce nosocomial transmission of SARS-CoV-2 in English NHS Trusts: a computational modelling study (7 May 2024)

Summary

This study in BMC Infectious Diseases aimed to estimate the contribution of individual interventions (together and in combination) to the effectiveness of the overall package of interventions implemented in English hospitals during the Covid-19 pandemic. The study simulated scenarios to explore how many nosocomial infections might have been seen in patients and healthcare workers if interventions had not been implemented. We simulated the time period from March 2020 to July 2022 encompassing different strains and multiple doses of vaccination.

Content

Key findings

• Modelling results suggest that in a scenario without inpatient testing, infection prevention and control measures and reductions in occupancy and visitors, the number of patients developing a nosocomial SARS-CoV-2 infection could have been twice as high over the course of the pandemic, and over 600,000 healthcare workers could have been infected in the first wave alone.
• Isolation of symptomatic healthcare workers and universal masking by healthcare workers were the most effective interventions for preventing infections in both patient and healthcare worker populations.
• Model findings suggest that collectively the interventions introduced over the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic in England averted 400,000 (240,000 – 500,000) infections in inpatients and 410,000 (370,000 – 450,000) healthcare worker infections.