Staff absence forecasts reveal ‘bleak picture’ for coming days

The number of NHS staff in London absent due to Covid has more than doubled in four days, and one in three of the workforce would be absent by new year’s eve if the growth rate continues.

The rapid increase in recent days is set out by internal NHS monitoring figures seen by HSJ.

t comes amid growing concern about the impact of the omicron variant, particularly in London, in the coming days and weeks. Sajid Javid this morning said the impact on the NHS was uncertain and it was still possible it may be overwhelmed.

Covid-related absences in the capital increased 140% from 1,926 on Sunday 12 December to 4,695 on Thursday 16 December. If the daily growth rate of around 20% continued, 1 in 10 would be off for covid-related reasons by Christmas Day, and around 1 in 3 by New Year’s Eve.

Asked about the data, NHS England pointed to guidance issued this week which asked trusts to prepare for workforce pressures, including to ”consider contingency options for significant staff absences to ensure essential services can be maintained”.

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Source: HSJ, 18 December 2021