University of Birmingham - Forecasting the NHS waiting list in England: 2022-30 (27 June 2022)

Summary

This report by researchers at the University of Birmingham is the first granular analysis of the known and hidden waiting lists for elective procedures in England.

There has been previous analysis of the NHS waiting list, but it has been based on the overall waiting list and has included patients waiting for all types of consultant-led care, including outpatient clinic visits and non-surgical treatments. The authors of this report have used procedure-level data to produce estimates for the need for elective procedures.

Content

The report addresses the following questions:

• How many people are waiting for elective procedures?
• What are the most common procedures on the waiting list?
• Is there a hidden waiting list, and what is on it?
• Is there a waiting lists postcode lottery across England?
• How much will it cost to clear the waiting list?
• Are patients shifting to private care?
• What are the possible trajectories for waiting lists through to 2030?