Summary
The results of an analysis published by Cancer Research UK estimate that more than 21 million UK adults will be obese by 2040, which equates to almost 4 in 10 of the UK adult population (36%).
The analysis also suggests that if current overweight and obesity trends continue, the number of UK adults who are overweight or obese may exceed this, reaching around 7 in 10 people, or 42 million people, by 2040, 71% of the population.
Worryingly, the report also indicates that the number of people who are obese could overtake the number who are a healthy weight in the UK by 2040.
This ‘tipping point’ could happen as early as the late 2020s for the UK as a whole and England, with Northern Ireland following suit in the late 2030s. For Scotland and Wales, the crossover is not expected to happen before 2040.
The report also suggests those experiencing higher levels of deprivation could suffer the most.
In England in 2019, 35% of people living in the most deprived areas were obese, and this is estimated to increase to almost half (46%) by 2040. In comparison, 22% of people living in the least deprived areas were obese in 2019 and this is estimated to increase to 25%.
These projections predict an increase in the relative deprivation gap for obesity prevalence between the least and most deprived quintiles by 13%, from 45% in 2019, to 58% by 2040 in England.
Obesity increases the risk of at least 13 different types of cancer. Every year around 22,800 cases of cancer in the UK are due to being overweight or obese. More research is needed to understand the link between obesity and cancer.
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