Summary
The scale of the challenge facing the NHS after the first wave of COVID-19 in England is only just coming to light. The NHS adapted at speed to redeploy staff, change estate configurations, reduce non-COVID-19 face-to-face appointments and redesign patient pathways.
The deployment of the NHS physician workforce provides an insight into the NHS response. In the middle of May, 32% of Royal College of Physicians (RCP) members reported working in a clinical area that was different from their normal practice.By the start of June this had reduced by 10% to 22%, but that still means one-fifth of the workforce were working outside their usual area. This has knock-on effects for patients and the resumption of services.
The RCP, in partnership with our specialist societies, has been working with NHS England to plan specialty-specific restart activity. This is based on different scenarios regarding specialty capacity across the country, and the impact of COVID-19 is being felt unevenly. Consultants in respiratory medicine and gastroenterology expect it to take 2 years to recover from the backlog created by COVID-19, while those in cardiology are expecting it to take 18–21 months.
Providing accurate estimates and projections about what the next 12 months hold for the NHS is difficult, as we can’t be certain about whether there will be future outbreaks and waves of COVID-19. This report highlights just why it is so important that the government, the NHS and politicians openly discuss the significant unmet need in the patient population.
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